Kazakhstan’s strategic leadership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: institutional innovation and regional integration dynamics in Central Asia

Economic Annals-XXI: Volume 213, Issue (1-2), Pages: 4-17

Citation information
Bitleuov, A., Kurmangali, A., Shaimordanova, Z., & Poujol, C. (2025). Kazakhstan’s strategic leadership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: institutional innovation and regional integration dynamics in Central Asia. Economic Annals-XXI, 213(1-2), 4-17. doi: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V213-01

Akbar Bitleuov
MA (Social Sciences),
Sorbonne-Kazakhstan Institute, Abai Kazakh National Pedagogical University
13 Dostyk Ave., Almaty, 050010, Republic of Kazakhstan
akbar31@bk.ru
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-8234-4438

Aimen Kurmangali
D.Sc. (Politics),
Associate Professor,
Sorbonne-Kazakhstan Institute, Abai Kazakh National Pedagogical University
13 Dostyk Ave., Almaty, 050010, Republic of Kazakhstan
a.kurmangali@sorbonne.kz
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9846-4983

Zara Shaimordanova
D.Sc. (History),
Professor,
Kazakh Ablai Khan University of International Relations and World Languages
200 Muratbaev Str., Almaty, 050000, Kazakhstan
shaimardanova.z@ablaikhan.kz
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6261-169X

Catherine Poujol
D.Sc. (History),
Professor,
National Institute of Oriental Languages and Civilisations
65 Grands Moulins Str., Paris, 75013, France
catherine.poujol@inalco.fr
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7784-9964

Kazakhstan’s strategic leadership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: institutional innovation and regional integration dynamics in Central Asia

Abstract. Introduction. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization has emerged as a significant multilateral platform representing approximately 42% of global population and 36% of world GDP, yet its institutional effectiveness and integration potential remain subjects of scholarly debate. This study examines Kazakhstan’s strategic leadership during its 2023-2024 chairmanship of the SCO, analyzing the country’s role in advancing institutional cohesion and promoting Central Asian regional integration within the context of evolving great power competition and alternative governance mechanisms.

Methods. Through comprehensive mixed-methods analysis incorporating quantitative trade data, institutional assessment, and diplomatic evaluation, the research examines Kazakhstan’s chairmanship impact on SCO development. Data sources include official statistics from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, Chinese General Administration of Customs, SCO Secretariat documents, and diplomatic materials from the 24th SCO Summit in Astana (July 3-4, 2024). The analysis encompasses 247 bilateral trade relationships, 156 investment projects, and 89 infrastructure initiatives across SCO membership during the study period.

Results. Kazakhstan’s foreign trade turnover reached USD 139.8 billion in 2023, representing a 3.2% increase, with trade relationships with SCO member states showing remarkable growth. China became Kazakhstan’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade hitting USD 31.5 billion in 2023, marking a 30% increase, while total SCO trade reached USD 95.2 billion in 2024, representing 39% cumulative growth over six years. The analysis reveals that Kazakhstan successfully facilitated the adoption of 25 strategic frameworks during the Astana Summit, including formal admission of Belarus as the organization’s tenth member state. Security cooperation achieved 100% member participation in counterterrorism initiatives with 34% threat reduction and 31% improvement in drug trafficking prevention.

Discussion. The findings demonstrate that Kazakhstan’s multi-vector diplomatic approach successfully mediated competing interests between major powers while advancing region-specific initiatives. Economic diversification accelerated significantly with non-oil exports reaching USD 25.3 billion (32% of total exports), agriculture and food sector trade growing 15.6% in 2024, and manufacturing cooperation expanding 12.3%. However, persistent challenges include great power competition dynamics, institutional overlap with alternative frameworks, and asymmetric member capabilities that constrain deeper integration potential.

Scientific Novelty. This research provides the first comprehensive empirical analysis of middle power institutional leadership within the SCO framework, introducing a novel analytical approach that integrates quantitative economic indicators with qualitative diplomatic assessment. The study challenges traditional assumptions about power distribution in multilateral institutions by demonstrating how middle powers can exercise meaningful influence through sophisticated diplomatic balancing and institutional entrepreneurship.

Practical Implications. The findings offer crucial insights for policymakers regarding effective leadership strategies in multilateral institutions and provide evidence-based guidance for developing alternative regional cooperation models. The research demonstrates that consensus-based approaches to regional cooperation can achieve substantial practical results while respecting sovereignty principles, offering valuable lessons for other developing regions seeking to enhance international cooperation without formal supranational integration.

Keywords: Shanghai Cooperation Organization; Kazakhstan; Regional Integration; Central Asia; Multilateralism; Institutional Leadership; Eurasian Diplomacy

JEL Classification: F15; F53; F55; F59; P48

Acknowledgements and Funding: The authors received no direct funding for this research.

Contribution: All authors contributed to this research. Akbar Bitleuov conducted the institutional analysis and diplomatic evaluation. Aimen Kurmangali led the theoretical framework development and literature review. Zara Shaimordanova performed the quantitative data analysis and economic cooperation assessment. Catherine Poujol provided comparative regionalism analysis and international context evaluation. All authors participated in methodology design, results interpretation, and manuscript preparation.

Data Availability Statement: The dataset is available from the authors upon request.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V213-01

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Received 29.11.2024
Received in revised form 19.12.2024
Accepted 28.12.2024
Available online 26.02.2025