Periodization and forecast of global dynamics of human resources development

Economic Annals-XXI: Volume 127, Issue 3-4(1), Pages: 3-6

Citation information:
Sardak, S., & Sukhoteplyi, V. (2013). Periodization and forecast of global dynamics of human resources development. Economic Annals-XXI, 3-4(1), 3-6. https://ea21journal.world/index.php/ea-v127-01/

Serhiy Sardak
PhD (Economics),
Associate Professor,
Oles Honchar Dnipropetrovsk National University, Ukraine
sardak1@rambler.ru

Volodymyr Sukhoteplyi
Director of «Home & Nation» Ltd, Dnipropetrovsk, Ukraine
bankway@ukr.net

Periodization and forecast of global dynamics of human resources development

Abstract. Analyzing and modeling interconnections between crucial factors of human development, rates of growth thereof and elasticity of the growth rates, the authors have defined specific periods of the development and have made a forecast for the dynamics of the human resources development.

Those periods have been defined more exactly and arranged as follows: the first one – «Before Christ»; the second one – «Early Medieval» (1-1100 a.d.); the third one – «Advanced Medieval» (1101-1625); the forth one – «Pioneer’s Modernization» (1626-1970); the fifth one – «Industrialization» (1871-2030) and the sixth one – «Informational society» – after 2030.

The results received enable to make forecasts of the global factors dynamics, to find out unified solutions in socio-economic sphere, to define tendencies in social development and to build up unified strategic approaches for modeling global influence on human resources.

Keywords: Global Dynamics; Development; Human Resources; Periodization; Forecast; Growth Rate; Elasticity

JEL Classification: C51; O10; O15; F01; F20

References

1. Bestuzhev-Lada, I. V. (n.d.). Optimal Parameters of Mankind Population as one of the Earth’s Populations.
   Retrieved from http://ecocrisis.wordpress.com/suprapopulatia/3257-2 (in Russ.)
2. Kapitsa, S. P. (2010). Paradoxes of Growth. Laws of Mankind Development. Moscow: Alpina non-fiction Publication (in Russ.).
3. Sardak, S. E. (2012). Management-regulation aspects of human resources development in globalization context. DNU Publishing (in Ukr.).
4. Bruk, S. I. (1974). Population. Moscow: Soviet Encyclopedia Pub. (in Russ.).
5. Pokrovsky, V. (1897). Population. Brockhaus and Efron Encyclopedic Dictionary. S.-Petersburg: F. A. Brokgauz and I. A. Efron Publisher (in Russ.).
6. Cohen, J. Е. (1995). How Many People Can the Earth Support? N.Y.: Norton & Company.
7. UN (2013). World Population to 2300. UN, Department of Economic and Social Affair.
   Retrieved from http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPop2300final.pdf
8. Groningen Growth and Development Centre (2013). Historical Statistics of the World Economy.
   Retrieved from http://www.ggdc.net/MADDISON/Historical_Statistics/horizontal-file_02-2010.xls
9. UN (2013). Total Population – Both Sexes.
   Retrieved from http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/Excel-Data/population.htm
10. Sorokin, P. (1957, reprinted 1970). Social and Cultural Dynamics: A Study of Change in Major Systems of Art, Truth, Ethics, Law and Social Relationships. Boston: Extending Horizons Books, Porter Sergeant Publishers.
11. WIPO (2013). Statistics on Utility Models.
    Retrieved from http://www.wipo.int/ipstats/en/statistics/models
12. WIPO (2013). Total number of patent applications by resident and non-resident (1985-2010).
    Retrieved from http://www.wipo.int/export/sites/www/ipstats/en/statistics/patents/xls/wipo_pat_appl_total_from_1985.xls
13. International Monetary Fund (2013). World Economic Outlook Databases. By Country Groups.
    Retrieved from http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/01/weodata/download.aspx
14. World Bank (2013). World Development Indicators.
    Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/data-catalog
15. Central Intelligence Agency (2013). Economy – Overview.
    Retrieved from http://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/xx.html
16. Weibull, W. (1967). Fatigue Testing and Analysis of Results. New York: Pergamon Press.
17. Sukhoteplyi, V. (2010). Optimizing of the branch concentration level with marginal values of Herfindahl-Hirschman Index. Economy and Forecas-ting, 3, 141-154 (in Ukr.).

Received 08.02.2013