Will a breakthrough in science modify world history?

Economic Annals-ХХI: Volume 141, Issue 5-6, Pages: 8-12

Citation information:
Basiuk, V., & Warner, H. (2014). Will a breakthrough in science modify world history? Economic Annals-XXI, 5-6, 8-12. https://ea21journal.world/index.php/ea-v141-02/

Victor Basiuk
PhD (Intern. rel.),
Consultant on Science,Technology and National Security Policy
9688 Farmside Place, Vienna, Virginia, 22182, USA
vbasiuk@verizon.net

Huber Warner
Professor of Biochemistry (emeritus),
University of Minnesota
1475 Gortner Ave, Saint Paul, MN 55108, USA
warne033@centurylink.net

Will a breakthrough in science modify world history?

Abstract. The article discusses the impact – personal, national, and global – of a forthcoming breakthrough in biogerontology, extension of health span (extension of human longevity without age-related illnesses, like cancer, cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, Alzheimer’s, etc.). This breakthrough has been achieved on mice, but to translate it to humans will take additional research requiring about $10 billions for 5 to 10 years. This is a relatively small amount of money, when compared with the trillions of dollars extension of health span will save in coming years for the United States alone.

Extension of health span will be very important for Ukraine: 1. Ukraine is losing its population, which will be stopped by extension of health span. 2. Because healthcare will be a great deal less expensive, large amounts of money will be released from the healthcare sector. This money will be available to invigorate the economy and for other worthwhile purposes.

Keywords: Human Health Span; Human Longevity; Changes in World Power; Demography; Geopolitics

JEL Classification: F01; H51; H56; H60; J11

Notes and References

• ⁱ The 2013 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance and Federal Supplementary Medical Insurance Trust Fund (2013). Washington, D.C. U.S. GPO, and data provided by the Center for Medicare and Medicaid Services. The dollar figures were computed by the authors.
• ⁱⁱ According to The World Almanac and the Book of Facts (2014). New York: World Almanac Books: 764, 849, in 2013 GDP in the United States was $15.9 trillion and that of China, $12.6 trillion. Projected annually at 3 percent for the United States and at 7.5 percent for China, in 2019 it will be $19 trillion for the United States and $19.6 trillion for China.
• ⁱⁱⁱ The term «soft power» as used here is any actual or potential influence of a nation in foreign affairs other than by coercive use of hard power – military and economic might.
• ^iv Personal communications of Victor Basiuk with these and other researchers in May 2014.
• ^v Sinclair, D. A., & Guarente, L. (2006). Unlocking the Secrets of Longevity Genes. Scientific American, 294, 48-56; Hubbards, B. P., Gomes, A., & Dai, H. (2013). Evidence for Common Mechanism of SIRT1 Regulation by Allosteric Activators. Science, 339, 1216-19.
• ^vi Telephone interview of Cynthia Kenyon by Victor Basiuk, 19 June 2012.
• ^vii Sharp, Z. D., & Strong, R. (2010). The role of mTOR signaling in controlling mammalian lifespan: what a fungicide teaches us about longevity. The Journal of Gerontology, Series A: Biological Sciences and Medical Sciences, 65, 580-89.
• ^viii This is not to suggest that a project for extension of health span should duplicate the organization of the Manhattan Project, which produced the first nuclear weapon, but that it should have its principal characteristics – a single focus, intensity of pursuit of its objective, and independence from other scientific institutions.
• ^ix Olshansky, S. J., Perry, D., Miller, R., & Butler, R. N. (2006). In Pursuit of the Longevity Dividend: What Should We Be Doing to Prepare for the Unprecedented Aging of Humanity? The Scientist, 20, 28-36.
• ^x Kronos Longevity Research Institute (2009). Grey Is the New Gold; State of the Science Two Thousand Nine. Phoenix, AZ: 5.
• ^xi Fries, J. F. (2002). Compression of Morbidity. Encyclopedia of Aging, 257-59.
• ^xii Swartz, A. (2008). James Fries: Healthy Aging Pioneer. American Journal of Public Health, 98, 1163-66.
• ^xiii Pearls, T. T. (1997). Centenarians Prove the Compression of Morbidity Hypothesis; But What About the Rest of Us Who Are Genetically Less Fortunate? Medical Hypotheses, 49, 405-07; Hitt, R., Yinong, X. U., Silver, M., & Peris, T. (1999). Centenarians: The Older You Get, the Healthier You Have Been. The Lancet, 35, 652.
• ^xiv Sebastiani, P., & Perls, T. T. (2012). The Genetics of Extreme Longevity: Lessons From the New England Centenarian Study. Frontiers of Genetics of Aging, 3 (November 2012) and telephone interviews of Paola Sebastiani by Victor Basiuk in May 2013.
• ^xv Congressional Budget Office (2013). The 2013 Long-Term Budget Outlook. Washington, D.C.: U.S. GPO, 1, 3, 8, 11. The dollar figures have been computed by the authors.
• ^xvi Ibid., 42. The dollar figure has been computed by the authors.
• ^xvii Jackson, R., & Howe, N. (2008). The Greying of the Great Powers: Demography and Geopolitics in the 21^st Century. Washington, D.C.: Center for Strategic and International Studies; Unless otherwise indicated, the population and projection figures on the following pages are from The World Almanac (2014), 733-34.
• ^xviii Jackson, R., & Howe, N. (2008). The Greying of the Great Powers, 180.
• ^xix Eberstadt, N. (2009). Drunken Nation: Russia’s Depopulation Bomb. World Affairs, 171, 51-62.
• ^xx Howe, N., & Jackson, R. (2011). Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020s. Current History, 110, 20-25.

Received 24.03.2014