Conflicts and their consequences

Assessment of the consequences of military conflicts and hybrid warfare for the socio-economic development of Ukraine

Economic Annals-XXI

Economic Annals-ХХI: Volume 181, Issue 1-2, Pages: 18-27

Citation information:
Pysar, N., Fediunin, S., Vynogradova, О., & Chornii, V. (2020). Assessment of the consequences of military conflicts and hybrid warfare for the socio-economic development of Ukraine. Economic Annals-XXI, 181(1-2), 18-27. doi: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V181-02

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Nadiia Pysar
D.Sc. (Economics),
Associate Professor,
National Technical University of Ukraine «Kyiv Polytechnic Institute» named after Igor Sikorsky
37 Peremohy Аve., Kyiv, 03056, Ukraine
diserdiser72@gmail.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2656-7323

Serhii Fediunin
PhD (Engineering),
Director, Educational and Research Institute of Management and Entrepreneurship,
State University of Telecommunications
7 Solomianska Str., Kyiv, 03110, Ukraine
s.fediunin@gmail.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6045-6657

Оlena Vynogradova
D.Sc. (Economics),
Professor,
State University of Telecommunications
7 Solomianska Str., Kyiv, 03110, Ukraine
evvy@ukr.net
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7250-5089

Viktoriia Chornii
PhD (Economics),
Senior Lecturer of the Department of Management,
National Technical University of Ukraine «Kyiv Polytechnic Institute» named after Igor Sikorsky
37 Peremohy Аve., Kyiv, 03056, Ukraine
lukashpost@gmail.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4460-0759

Assessment of the consequences of military conflicts and hybrid warfare for the socio-economic development of Ukraine

Abstract. Introduction. In recent years, the economic security and social well-being of Ukraine have been dramatically shaken due to military conflicts in eastern Ukraine and the effects of hybrid warfare on the sustainable development of the country’s economic system. The insufficient research of the methodology for assessing the level of consequences of military conflicts and hybrid warfare on the country’s socio-economic development necessitates a deeper insight into this problem, and the practical need to assess Ukraine’s real GDP losses makes this insight even more relevant. In such conditions, of great importance is the search for economic potential, which, according to scientists, can be developed through the prism of the development of such a cluster of the economy as «New Energy». Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a methodology for analyzing and assessing Ukraine’s real GDP losses in the context of its sectors, as well as to find by means of the foresight methodology the growth factors of real GDP through the prism of development of the Ukrainian energy market.

Results. The study enabled to quantify and justify the resulting gap of real GDP initiated by the hybrid warfare and military conflicts in eastern Ukraine, as well as to predict the development of the national economy, taking into account the growth/decline rates of real GDP and the economic capacity of the Ukrainian energy market. The potential for overcoming the current gap of real GDP initiated by the hybrid warfare and military conflicts in eastern Ukraine has been demonstrated based on the analysis of the economic capacity of the Ukrainian energy market.

Conclusion. It is proved that the methodology for assessing the level of real GDP and elaboration of scenarios for the development of the economy are essential to improve the quality of management practices for economic transformations in the context of hybrid warfare. It has been calculated that in order to return to the level of the pre-crisis period, Ukraine will need to increase its annual GDP growth rate by at least 8%. The proposed forecast estimates of the economic capacity of the Ukrainian energy market are aimed at developing a sound policy for transforming the Ukrainian economy. The results obtained can serve as a guide in modernizing the Ukrainian economy on the path to European integration and finding ways of its economic security based on economic liberalization, as well as a guide for constructive plans for socio-economic development in the conditions of violated territorial integrity of Ukraine.

Keywords: Methodology; Economic Security; Gross Domestic Product (GDP); GDP Economic Losses; Strategy; Hybrid Warfare; Energy; Energy Market; Gas and Oil Production; Ukraine

JEL Classification: E01; E60; R13; R38; Q43; O11

Acknowledgements and Funding: The authors received no direct funding for this research.

Contribution: The authors contributed equally to this work.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V181-02

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Received 3.12.2019
Received in revised form 14.01.2020
Accepted 22.01.2020
Available online 10.02.2020
Updated version of the paper as of 29.04.2020

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