Development of the scientific and technological forecasting methodology based on using TIPS instruments
Economic Annals-ХХI: Volume 187, Issue 1-2, Pages: 223-231
Citation information:
Golubev, S., Efremov, A., Gorokhova, A., Gayduk, V., & Kravets, E. (2021). Development of the scientific and technological forecasting methodology based on using TIPS instruments. Economic Annals-XXI, 187(1-2), 223-231. doi: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V187-22
Sergei Golubev
D.Sc. (Economics),
Department of Economics and Organization,
Faculty of Economics and Management,
Moscow Polytechnic University
38 Bolshaya Semenovskaya Str., Moscow, 107023, Russian Federation
sergei.golubev56@mail.ru,
il.abrorvv23@yahoo.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8745-6235
Andrey Efremov
D.Sc. (Economics),
Department of Economics and Organization,
Faculty of Economics and Management,
Moscow Polytechnic University
38 Bolshaya Semenovskaya Str., Moscow, 107023, Russian Federation
a.a.efremov@mospolytech.ru
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1006-1427
Anna Gorokhova
D.Sc. (Economics),
Department of Economics and Organization,
Faculty of Economics and Management,
Moscow Polytechnic University
38 Bolshaya Semenovskaya Str., Moscow, 107023, Russian Federation
agor_80@mail.ru
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5820-1687
Vladimir Gayduk
D.Sc. (Economics),
Department of Institutional Economics and Investment Management,
Faculty of Economics,
Kuban State Agrarian University named after I. T. Trubilin
13 Kalinin Str., Krasnodar, 350044, Russian Federation
vi_gayduk@mail.ru
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9992-7647
Ekaterina Kravets
PhD (Economics),
Department of Management,
Institute of Project Management and Investment Business,
Leonov Moscow Region University of Technology
42 Gagarin Str., Korolev, Moscow Region, 141070, Russian Federation
kravec_e_v@mail.ru
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1178-239X
Development of the scientific and technological forecasting methodology based on using TIPS instruments
Abstract. Scientific and technological forecasting for a long run is essential when determining priorities in science, engineering, and technology development. The forecasting methods used in its development and based on the Delphi approach cannot provide a complete analysis of development trends, depending on the experts’ professionalism, and allow facts of lobbying interests of various groups.
In this paper, the mechanisms for improving the quality of scientific and technological forecasts by using the theory of inventive problem solving (TIPS, or TRIZ) when forming and verifying forecasts have been offered. In this case, the forecast results are based not only on the expert’s subjective opinion but also on the objective laws of the development of the technical systems. The material has come with detailed practical examples.
The integration of the TRIZ instruments in the state system for determining top priority technological areas will reduce errors in choosing the number of promising technological and technical areas that will make up the basis for the formation of new models and technologies.
Keywords: Innovation; Scientific Forecasting; Technological Forecasting; Forecast Quality; Problems Solving; TRIZ; TIPS
JEL Classifications: O31; O39; O32; C87
Acknowledgements and Funding: The authors received no direct funding for this research.
Contribution: The authors contributed equally to this work.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V187-22
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Received 8.12.2020
Received in revised form 29.12.2020
Accepted 12.01.2021
Available online 28.02.2021