The role of financial statements in predicting the changes of prices and production cost of oil
Economic Annals-ХХI: Volume 193, Issue (9-10), Pages: 25-33
Citation information:
Zwaid, J. G., Bari, A. H. A., & Rashed, R. N. (2021). The role of financial statements in predicting the changes of prices and production cost of oil. Economic Annals-XXI, 193(9-10), 25-33. doi: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V193-03
Jasim Gshayyish Zwaid
Lecturer,
Technical Institute Kut,
Middle Technical University
Baghdad, 8998+QHJ, Iraq
sadlah.hmd@yahoo.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4666-8482
Ayad Hadi Abdul Bari
Lecturer,
Technical Institute Kut,
Middle Technical University
Baghdad, 8998+QHJ, Iraq
hvhdi@yahoo.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6362-7394
Raed Naeem Rashed
Lecturer,
Faculty of Engineering,
Wasit University
Kut, FRXQ+RC4, Iraq
khuddur.abbj@yahoo.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2693-2132
The role of financial statements in predicting the changes of prices and production cost of oil
Abstract. Oil is considered a strategic commodity for the countries of OPEC – based on it determined the direction of economic and financial development. It is the most important source used by the country to implement its policy and economic programs. This study focused on accurately predicting future prices of OPEC’s oil drum and suggest suitable planning to avoid any economic financial due to oscillating oil prices. Also, is the financial statement have a role in increasing predict accuracy for oscillating oil’s prices. To achieve research goals and exam research hypothesis monitored oil price monthly for fifteen years from (1/1/2003-1/6/2020). The results data have two types of time series, therefore, analyzed by using MATLAB software. The results have linear and non-linear data; therefore, it needs software or more for processing to predict oil prices in the future. Linear data can be processed using one statistics model, ARIMA (2,2,1), to predict future oil prices. Many suggestions are introduced, among them must using a set of programs to process data of financial statements.
Keywords: OPEC; Financial Statements; Price Changes; Oil; Cost of Oil
JEL Classifications: E1; A2
Acknowledgments and Funding: The authors received no direct funding for this research.
Contribution: The authors contributed equally to this work.
Data Availability Statement: The dataset is available from the authors upon request.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V193-03
References
- Abdollahi, H., & Ebrahimi, S. B. (2020). A new hybrid model for forecasting Brent crude oil price. Energy, 200, 117520.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.117520 - Hao, Y., & Tian, Ch. (2020). A hybrid framework for carbon trading price forecasting: the role of multiple influence factor. Journal of Cleaner Production, 262, 120378.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.120378 - Jianwei, E., Bao, Y., & Ye, J. (2017). Crude oil price analysis and forecasting based on variational mode decomposition and independent component analysis. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 484, 412-427.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2017.04.160 - Karasu, S., Altan, A., Bekiros, S., & Ahmad, W. (2020). A new forecasting model with wrapper-based feature selection approach using multi-objective optimization technique for chaotic crude oil time series. Energy, 212, 118750.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.118750 - Kocaarslan, B., Soytas, M. A., & Soytas, U. (2020). The asymmetric impact of oil prices, interest rates and oil price uncertainty on unemployment in the US. Energy Economics, 86, 104625.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2019.104625 - Lin, B., & Bai, R. (2021). Oil prices and economic policy uncertainty: Evidence from global, oil importers, and exporters’ perspective. Research in International Business and Finance, 56, 101357.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101357 - Ma, Y.-R., Ji, Q., & Pan, J. (2019). Oil financialization and volatility forecast: Evidence from multidimensional predictors. Journal of Forecasting, 38(6), 564-581.
https://doi.org/10.1002/for.2577 - Sun, X., Hao, J., & Li, J. (2020). Multi-objective optimization of crude oil-supply portfolio based on interval prediction data. Annals of Operations Research, 309, 611-639.
https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-020-03701-w - Wu, B., Wang, L., Lv, Sh.-X., & Zeng, Y.-R. (2021). Effective crude oil price forecasting using new text-based and big-data-driven model. Measurement, 168, 108468.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.measurement.2020.108468
Received 14.05.2021
Received in revised form 19.06.2021
Accepted 29.06.2021
Available online 19.10.2021