Megatrends of the world politics

Economic Annals-ХХI: Volume 192, Issue 7-8(2), Pages: 4-14

Citation information:
Koppel, O., & Parkhomchuk, O. (2021). Megatrends of the world politics. Economic Annals-XXI, 192(7-8(2)), 4-14. doi: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V192-01

Olena Koppel
D.Sc. (History), Professor,
Institute of International Relations,
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
68-a Sichovykh Striltsiv Str., office 358, Kyiv, 04050, Ukraine
helenkoppel45@gmail.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6297-5610

Olena Parkhomchuk
D.Sc. (Political Science), Professor,
Institute of International Relations,
Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv
68-a Sichovykh Striltsiv Str., office 358, Kyiv, 04050, Ukraine
parkhomchuk45@gmail.com
ORCID ID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6261-3580

Megatrends of the world politics

Abstract. In the study, we identify and analyse how conceptual and applied aspects of megatrends of world politics are treated in the expert-academic community by outlining the specifics of megatrends of global development in the international political sphere.

The paper summarises the megatrends of world politics that will shape the world by 2030. There is a threefold transformation of the modern political organisation of the world: the transformation of the Westphalian world political model, which is determined by globalisation, the transformation of the modern international system, largely due to integration as a megatrend, and the transformation of political systems. Global governance will be carried out in new formats, which will be reflected in the intensification of the institutions of collective world leadership. A change in the hierarchy of leading international actors, a rethinking of the power of leading global actors (US and EU), and the emergence of new potential political and economic global leaders are projected. The centre of world development is moving, the economic centre is shifting to the east and south.

One of the central megatrends of world politics is the decline in human security, which became even clearer during the SARS pandemic, COVID-19, which will lead to the transformation of the modern international order.

To these megatrends of world politics, we also adjoin the virtualisation of socio-political relations, a new model of change of political power and governance in individual countries, reideologization of world politics, inversion of fundamental values, universalization of migration flows.

Keywords: World Politics; International Relations; Megatrends; Global Development; World Order

JEL Classification: O29; P17

Acknowledgements and Funding: The authors received no direct funding for this research.

Contribution: The authors contributed equally to this work.

Data Availability Statement: The dataset is available from the authors upon request.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.21003/ea.V192-01

References

1. Berger Poland. (2020). Trend compendium 2050: megatrends shaping the coming decades.
   https://www.rolandberger.com/en/Insights/Global-Topics/Trend-Compendium
2. Danilevsky, N. (2013). Russia and Europe: The Slavic World’s Political and Cultural Relations with the Germanic-Roman West. St. Petersburg.
3. Deloitte. (2017). Beyond the noise. The megatrends of tomorrow’s world.
   https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/nl/Documents/public-sector/deloitte-nl-ps-megatrends-2ndedition.pdf
4. European Parliament. (2017). Global trends to 2035 – Geo-politics and international power.
   https://www.oxan.com/media/1969/global-trends-to-2035-geopolitics-and-power.pdf
5. European Union. (2021). Strategic Foresight Report.
   https://ec.europa.eu/info/strategy/strategic-planning/strategic-foresight/2021-strategic-foresight-report_el
6. Fukuyama, F. (1989). The End of History. The National Interest, 16,3-18.
   https://www.jstor.org/stable/24027184
7. Fukuyama, F. (2006). America at the Crossroads: Democracy, Power and Neoconservative legacy. New Haven. Yale University Press.
   https://yalebooks.yale.edu/book/9780300122534/america-crossroads
8. Haas, R. (2019). A world in disarray: American foreign policy and the crisis of the old order.
   https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/documents-publications/library/library-blog/posts/a-world-in-disarray-american-foreign-policy-and-the-crisis-of-the-old-order-by-richard-haass
9. Held, D., & Koenig-Archibugi, M. (2004). American power in the 21st century (1st Edition).Polity.
10. Hoehn, A., Parasiliti, A., Efron, S., & Strongin, S. (2018). Discontinuities and Distractions – Rethinking Security for the Year 2040. Findings from a RAND Corporation Workshop.
    https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Discontinuities-and-Distractions-%E2%80%94-Rethinking-for-a-Hoehn-Parasiliti/b4552c278f1b9004ea990e8893f477ac7db89e64
11. Huntington, S. (1991). Democracy’s Third Wave. Journal of Democracy, 2(2), 11-34.
    https://www.ned.org/docs/Samuel-P-Huntington-Democracy-Third-Wave.pdf
12. Huntington, S. P. (1996, 2011). The clash of civilizations and the remaking of world order. Simon & Schuster.
13. Ipsos. (2020). Global trends 2020: the world in 2020.
    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/publication/documents/2020-02/ipsos-global-trends-2020-understanding-complexity.pdf
14. Jaspers, K. (1999). The Origin and Goal of History. (Translated By Michael Bullock) Routledge & Kegan Paul.
15. Kapchan, Ch., & Mount, A. (2009). Autonomous governance: American policy after the «promotion of democracy». Russia in global politics, (pp. 52-68).
    https://polit.ru/article/2009/08/13/avtonom (in Russ).
16. Karaganov, S. A. (2007). The world around Russia: 2017. Contours of the Near Future. Council on Foreign and Defense Policy.
    http://www.svop.ru/public/docs_2007_3_21_1350646666.pdf (in Russ.)
17. Karaganov, S. A. (2008). Russia and the world. New era. 12 years that can change everything. AST: Rus-Olympus (in Russ.)
18. Keohane, R. (2000). Governance in a partially Globalized World. Brookings Press.
19. Keohane, R. (2012). Power and Independence (4th Edition). Westly Longman.
20. Kissinger, H. (2002). Does America need a foreign policy? Toward diplomacy for the 21st century (1st edition). Simon & Schuster.
21. Kissinger, H. (2014). World Order. Penguin Press.
22. KPMG. (2020). Anticipate, prepare, respond. Geopolitical megatrends and business resilience.
    https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/au/pdf/2021/geopolitical-megatrends-business-resilience.pdf
23. Lebedeva, M. M. (2019). Megatrends of world politics and their development in the XXI century: textbook for university students. Aspect Press Publishing House (in Russ).
24. Meszaros, J. (2021). Five Megatrends to Watch in 2021. Medium.
    https://medium.com/issues-decoded/five-megatrends-to-watch-in-2021-349ae2083ea
25. Naisbitt, J., & Aburdene, P. (1992). What awaits us in the 90s. Megatrends. The year 2000: ten new directions for the 90s.
26. Naisbitt, J. (1982). Megatrends. The New Directions Transforming Our Lives. Warner Books.
27. National Intelligence Council. (2000). Global trends 2015: A dialogue about the future with nongovernment experts.
    https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Global%20Trends_2015%20Report.pdf
28. National Intelligence Council. (2008). Global trends 2025: A transformed world.
    https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Newsroom/Reports%20and%20Pubs/2025_Global_Trends_Final_Report.pdf
29. National Intelligence Council. (2012). Global trends 2030: the world in 2030.
    https://www.dni.gov/index.php/who-we-are/organizations/mission-integration/nic/nic-related-menus/nic-related-content/global-trends-2030
30. Nye, J. S. Jr. (1992). What New World Order? Foreign Affairs, 71(2), 83-96.
    https://www.jstor.org/stable/20045126
31. Nye, J. S. Jr. (2003). The Paradox of American Power: Why the World’s only Superpower can’t it go alone. Oxford University Press.
    https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/0195161106.001.0001/acprof-9780195161106
32. Nye, J. S. Jr. (2006). Transformational Leadership and U.S. Grand Strategy. Foreign Affairs.
33. The Club of Rome. (2021). Official website.
    https://www.clubofrome.org
34. The World Government Summit. (2021). Megatrends That Will Shape the Next Decade [Video]. YouTube.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4shvv1hhqPM

Received 26.05.2021
Received in revised form 19.06.2021
Accepted 22.06.2021
Available online 21.09.2021
Updated version of the paper as of 28.12.2021